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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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Brief Analysis
Russia Signals Biden with Attack on Syrian Jihadist Group
Washington is no ally of HTS, but it should realize that Russian strikes against the group are aimed squarely at foiling U.S. objectives in Geneva, including the effort to maintain cross-border aid.
Jun 11, 2021
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
The Evolution of Iran’s Qods Force Since 1979
By absorbing rival organizations and favoring commanders who lack connections to other regime power centers, the IRGC has used the Qods Force to steadily centralize and monopolize control over the country’s foreign operations.
Jun 3, 2021
◆
  • Ali Alfoneh
Articles & Testimony
The Policy Consequences of Arab State Normalization with the Assad Regime
In addition to undermining the Biden administration’s promised focus on human rights, allowing Assad to regain legitimacy abroad would constitute a strategic blunder that cannot be explained away.
Jun 2, 2021
◆
  • Oula A. Alrifai
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
President Donald Trump speaks about Syria
Articles & Testimony
The Inside Story of How Trump ‘Kept the Oil’ in Syria and Lost
The ambitious plan would have seen Delta Crescent, a tiny Delaware company, try to bring peace and stability to the war-ravaged northeast, but local corruption, a lack of U.S. commitment, and other complications doomed the idea.
May 31, 2021
◆
  • Kenneth R. Rosen
A pro-Assad election poster in Syria
Video
Brief Analysis
Not (Just) Another Rigged Syrian Election: Implications for Settling the War
A panel of experts discuss the short- and long-term consequences of the 2021 presidential vote, including its potential effects on domestic opposition, regional normalization, future peace prospects, and Western policy.
May 26, 2021
◆
  • Vladimir Pran
  • Hannah Roberts
  • Wael Sawah
  • Zahra Albarazi
  • Emile Hokayem
  • Emma Beals
Syrian rebel fighters play a board game in a cafe
Brief Analysis
Stalemate in Northeast Syria: Options for Advancing U.S. Interests
In addition to clarifying its intentions and fortifying its presence in the area, the U.S. government needs to increase its focus on stability, security, and economic development.
May 21, 2021
◆
  • Kenneth R. Rosen
Gaza Soleimani
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
How Iraqi Militias Are Exploiting the Gaza Conflict
Hamas's example could embolden Iraqi factions to accelerate attacks on U.S. facilities at home, as well as seek some reflected glory by claiming Syria-based attacks against Israelis.
May 16, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
A pro-Assad election poster in Syria
Articles & Testimony
Russia Pushes a Dangerous Narrative Ahead of Syria’s Sham Election
Moscow would have the world believe that the best route to stability is legitimizing a dictator who plunged his country into war and destabilized the entire Middle East.
May 14, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Rehabilitating Assad: The Arab League Embraces a Pariah
Parochial interests and war fatigue are driving many member states to support premature elections and normalization with Damascus, but this approach will only consolidate Assad’s control and help him evade accountability for war crimes.
May 4, 2021
◆
  • David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Is Stalemate the Least Bad Option in Syria?
If only to avoid far worse outcomes, Washington should reject Assad’s bogus “reelection” and keep supporting Israeli strikes, the SDF’s viability, and refugee aid.
May 3, 2021
◆
  • David Pollock
Kaabi speech
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba
Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba proved its axis of resistance credentials in Syria, but its role in terrorism and repression within Iraq is more enigmatic.
Apr 27, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
AAH leader
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Asaib Ahl al-Haq
Asaib Ahl al-Haq is a major Iraqi armed group that identifies as part of Iran's axis of resistance but stubbornly maintains a degree of independence, forming numerous cells to conduct kinetic, media, and social operations, some bankrolled by the Iraqi state.
Apr 27, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Video
Brief Analysis
Foreign Fighters and U.S. Policy: Tracking Mobilization Hubs to Stem the Flow
By examining the growth of such hubs during the Islamic State’s caliphate years, two experts assess how the international community can limit recruitment in these areas and address local grievances.
Apr 26, 2021
◆
  • Nate Rosenblatt
  • Naureen Chowdhury Fink
◆ Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Video
Brief Analysis
The Economic Future of Northeast Syria
Experts discuss the humanitarian, trade, and security measures that are necessary to stabilizing the northeast and preventing the Islamic State and Assad from extending their harmful influence there.
Apr 23, 2021
◆
  • Jennifer Cafarella
  • Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff
  • Kenneth R. Rosen
Russian soldiers in Syria
Articles & Testimony
Russia in the Middle East: A Source of Stability or a Pot-Stirrer?
If Washington continues to deprioritize the Middle East, Russia will accelerate its convergence with Iran and essentially determine Syria’s future, which could result in a more explicit and dangerous nexus between these actors.
Apr 21, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Qods Force deputy commander Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh
Brief Analysis
Who Is Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh, the New Deputy Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?
A closer look at the general’s service in Syria, his political and military connections, and his potential influence on how the Qods Force carries out future operations abroad.
Apr 20, 2021
◆
  • Ali Alfoneh
al-Sahaba Mosque, Darnah, Libya
In-Depth Reports
'A Caliphate That Gathered':
Addressing the Challenge of Jihadist Foreign Fighter Hubs
By devoting resources to areas of concentrated recruitment, the Biden administration can reduce the scope of future Middle East conflicts along with the likelihood that U.S. troops will once again be drawn into them.
Apr 15, 2021
◆
  • Nate Rosenblatt
Iranian sailors on board a naval vessel in the Strait of Hormuz
Brief Analysis
Iran and Israel’s Undeclared War at Sea (Part 1): IRGC-Hezbollah Financing Schemes
Recent maritime escalation between the two countries stems mainly from Iranian efforts to fund Hezbollah, underscoring the financial interdependency between the Lebanese militia, Tehran, and the Syrian regime.
Apr 6, 2021
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Russia Seeks Regional Buy-In for Its Syria Plans
Moscow is using calibrated military power and complex diplomacy to persuade Turkey, Qatar, and other countries to back its solutions.
Apr 6, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
KH flag
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Kataib Hezbollah
Kataib Hezbollah is the premier militia in Iraq, operating under Iran's direct command and fielding a wide range of cells responsible for kinetic, media, and social operations, some bankrolled by the Iraqi state.
Apr 1, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

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The Washington Institute's Rubin Family Arab Politics Program focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant, and Director of the Institute's Junior Research Program.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Goldberger Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he specializes in military and security affairs in the Middle East.
David Schenker
David Schenker
David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Rubin Family Arab Politics Program. He is the former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
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