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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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MEES map showing Israeli and Lebanese maritime border claims in the East Mediterranean.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Israel’s Karish Gas Field: Diplomatic Opportunity or Casus Belli?
Seven experts examine how the fraught decision to start production might affect Beirut’s negotiating stance, Hezbollah’s military calculus, U.S.-Israel relations, and other factors.
Sep 20, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Ehud Yaari
  • David Makovsky
  • David Schenker
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Assad and Khamenei
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Despite Airstrikes, Iran Continues to Permeate Western Syria
Efforts to counter Iran in Syria are solely focused on Iran’s military presence in the country, and have ignored the soft-power, cultural spheres of influence being developed by Iran as a long-term strategy.
Sep 14, 2022
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  • Omar Abu Layla
Nujaba Warethun
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Al-Warithuun
Al-Warithuun is a "resistance" brand with a recurring connection to kinetic operations that are directed by Iran's Qods Force but intended to be deniable.
Sep 13, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Erdogan and Putin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Consequences of Turkey’s Shifting Position on the Syrian Crisis
Although establishing ties between Turkey and the Syrian regime may seem like a smart move by Erdogan, the decision represents a betrayal of the Syrian people and its success is not guaranteed for the Turkish government.
Sep 2, 2022
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  • Salahuddin Hawa
Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks in a recorded interview released in Jan. 2019. Photo credit: Screenshot by Cole Bunzel via Twitter.
Articles & Testimony
Jawlani’s “State of the Union”
The Syrian jihadist leader’s growing efforts to garner legitimacy and build up local institutions can only go so far amid the group’s continued terrorist sympathies and minority repression.
Aug 29, 2022
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
U.S. Central Command graphic, Aug 15, 2022 drone attack on Al Tanf
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah's Role in the August 15 al-Tanf Attack
The Syria strike was launched from the militia's bastion in Iraq and used Iranian-provided KAS-04 explosive drones.
Aug 25, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
AlhawlsyriarefugeesISIS
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Arab Syrian IDPs of Tal Rifaat also Want to Go Home
The involvement of Turkish military forces in Northern Syria could allow thousands of Syrians to return to their homes after being forced out by the YPG, the SDF, and other entities for many years.
Aug 12, 2022
◆
  • Rena Netjes
Dorsin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Armed with Paintbrushes: Kurdish Female Artists Fighting for Equality
Kurdish women use art as a powerful tool to represent what it means to be a Kurd, a woman, and a human being.
Aug 4, 2022
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  • Shilan Fuad Hussain
Screen capture of the FBI Most Wanted Terrorist poster for Ayman al-Zawahiri, updated following Zawahiri's killing in Afghanistan by American forces. Source: FBI
Brief Analysis
What Zawahiri’s Death Means for al-Qaeda and Its Branches
Despite the potent symbolic benefits of taking out the infamous terrorist ideologue, his death is unlikely to affect the organization’s daily operations, which are increasingly being driven by dangerous affiliates in Africa.
Aug 2, 2022
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Arab Tribes and Saudi Influence in Northeastern Syria
Saudi Arabia has worked with Syrian tribes in the past to bolster their involvement in Northeastern Syria, but tribal frustrations with the SDF and shifting geopolitical realities are impacting this relationship.
Aug 2, 2022
◆
  • Ishtar Al Shami
Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi meet in Tehran in 2022 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Russia and Iran Keep Growing Closer
Given their proven capacity for jointly disrupting Western imperatives in the Middle East, both countries should increasingly be treated as part of the same strategic set.
Jul 26, 2022
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
U.S._and_Turkish_military_forces_conduct_second_joint_ground_patrol_inside_of_the_secur
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Impending Turkish Invasion: Repercussions for the SDF-Washington Relationship
A Turkish attack on northern Syria would bring new waves of internal displacement and increased humanitarian suffering, weaken the SDF and the Autonomous Administration, and erode these institutions’ the trust of the United States.
Jul 25, 2022
◆
  • Baraa Sabri
Turkish President Erdogan at a summit with Russian President Putin in Sochi in 2021 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Will the Putin-Erdogan-Raisi Summit Spark a Turkish Incursion into Syria?
Moscow and Tehran may well assent to another cross-border operation, but Turkey’s choice of targets will depend on multiple U.S., Russian, and Iranian interests.
Jul 18, 2022
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
How the Autonomous Administration Leadership and Civilians Will View a Turkish Incursion into Northeast Syria
With the threat of a Turkish incursion into Northeast Syria, the SDF weighs their options while the area’s civilians express their frustrations and concerns about all parties involved.
Jul 18, 2022
◆
  • Ishtar Al Shami
Brief Analysis
Time to Develop a Plan B for Syria Aid
Although alternatives to the UN mechanism carry uncertainties of their own, continuing the broken status quo will only boost Moscow, endanger Syrian civilians, and help the Assad regime avoid sanctions—not to mention whetting his appetite for natural gas shipments.
Jul 14, 2022
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Photo showing 1983 terrorist attack at U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Don’t Look Down: The Struggle Over Lebanon’s Airspace
To avoid past mistakes and counter the most potent threat on its borders, Israel requires an accurate intelligence picture in Lebanon, but Iran and Hezbollah risk destabilizing the situation by chipping away at the IDF’s air superiority.
Jul 7, 2022
◆
  • Assaf Orion
Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks in a recorded interview released in Jan. 2019. Photo credit: Screenshot by Cole Bunzel via Twitter.
Articles & Testimony
Why Is It So Difficult to Get Off a Terrorist List?
Strategic priorities, political factors, and institutional inertia make it hard to remove a group from government lists even if it no longer meets the designation criteria, potentially hog-tying U.S. policymakers.
Jul 3, 2022
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Turkish president Erdogan at NATO headquarters in Brussels
Brief Analysis
What Biden Faces with Erdogan at the NATO Summit
The Turkish leader has been trying to leverage Sweden and Finland’s accession to weaken international support for the YPG in Syria, but he may be content with symbolic concessions that boost his reelection chances.
Jun 28, 2022
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
Video
Brief Analysis
Al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and the Future of Jihadism
A panel of leading counterterrorism scholars and practitioners discuss the evolving face of the global jihadist movement amid changes in Washington’s CT posture.
Jun 15, 2022
◆
  • Anastasia Smith
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Rhetoric Meets Reality in Jawlani’s Push for Self-Sufficiency
As a key UN vote approaches, Washington should push Turkey to help promote a diverse, balanced economy in HTS-controlled northwest Syria.
Jun 8, 2022
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin

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Rubin Family Arab Politics Program

The Washington Institute's Rubin Family Arab Politics Program focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant, and Director of the Institute's Junior Research Program.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Goldberger Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he specializes in military and security affairs in the Middle East.
David Schenker
David Schenker
David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Rubin Family Arab Politics Program. He is the former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
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