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شمال آفریقا

Policy Analysis on شمال آفریقا

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In-Depth Reports
Your Sons Are at Your Service: Tunisia’s Missionaries of Jihad
How did Tunisia, a democratic bright spot of the Arab uprisings with very little history of terrorist violence within its borders before 2011, become one of the largest sources of foreign fighters for the Islamic State? This groundbreaking book presents the first history of the Tunisian jihadi movement and challenges simplified views of jihadism's appeal and success.
۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
The Persistent Threat from the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda: The View from the UN
The head of the UN team charged with monitoring each group assesses their prospects for bouncing back and recommends further steps that governments can take to counter them.
۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Edmund Fitton-Brown
◆ Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Brief Analysis
Tunisia Turns a Corner Against the Jihadist Movement
Fewer attacks and more prosecutions suggest the country’s integrated approach could eventually become a model for the region.
۲۷ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov
Brief Analysis
Russia’s Growing Interests in Libya
As in other conflict zones, Moscow cares little about reaching a peace deal so long as it can outmaneuver the West strategically while securing port and energy access—with private contractors playing an increasingly important role.
۲۴ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya
If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue.
۱۷ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Ceasefire or Escalation in Libya?
After the fall of Sirte, Erdogan and Putin’s desired ceasefire can only be achieved with Washington’s support.
۱۰ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۰
◆
  • Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy
Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict.
۱۹ دسامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Ben Fishman
Articles & Testimony
Russian Private Military Companies: Continuity and Evolution of the Model
In a bid to ensure plausible deniability, address internal rivalries, and advance its competition with the West, the Kremlin has increased its use of such contractors in the Middle East and elsewhere.
۱۹ دسامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Turkey Doubles Region’s Troubles—First in Syria, and Now in Libya
New maritime and military agreements may pull Ankara into Libya’s civil war, adding yet another foreign actor to an already tortuous multilateral showdown.
۱۶ دسامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Algeria’s Election Is a Make-or-Break Moment
The vote’s outcome will not have much legitimacy in the eyes of the people, so Washington should focus on urging all parties to lay the groundwork for longer-term reforms aimed at breaking the political deadlock.
۱۰ دسامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Sarah Feuer
Articles & Testimony
What Will It Take to Repair Middle Eastern Economies?
Directly investing in nongovernmental enterprise and giving international approval to private competition can change the dynamic in individual countries, promote liberal economies, and give citizens greater agency.
۸ دسامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Bilal Wahab
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State in Libya Has Yet to Recover
Given the group’s operational silence and loss of foreign help, it may not be able to launch the type of insurgency seen in Syria, but that could change if U.S. attention wanes militarily or diplomatically.
۶ دسامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
The U.S. Must Blunt Russia’s Adventurism in Libya
The deployment of Kremlin-linked mercenaries will make a costly civil war even more difficult to end.
۲۵ نوامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Israeli Gas Export Route to Egypt Finalized
The two countries still need to resolve longer-term questions about international export options and energy contracts with Jordan, but the latest step toward reopening the pipeline is encouraging.
۱۳ نوامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The Renaissance Dam Negotiations: An Egyptian View
The U.S.-brokered talks are a good start, but breaking the impasse on the GERD reservoir’s fill rate is crucial to avoiding deep socioeconomic damage in Egypt and potential armed conflict.
۱۲ نوامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Mahmoud Farouk
تحلیل کوتاه
ائتلاف ضدداعش پس از مرگ بغدادی هم کار زیاد دارد
ائتلاف ضدداعش، از انحلال خلافت داعش گرفته تا كشتن رهبر آن، دستاوردهای بزرگی داشته، اما اگر ایالات متحده و سایر اعضای ائتلاف همکاری‌های خود را در نشست آینده وزیران تجدید نكنند، همه این كارها بی‌نتیجه خواهد ماند.
۷ نوامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • ماتیو لویت
Articles & Testimony
The U.S.: Between Being the World’s Policeman and Trusting Regional Partners
Despite long-documented public weariness with Middle East conflicts, Trump’s successor could well recognize the value of reestablishing American credibility in the region.
۲۸ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Tunisians to Elect a New President
With no clear front-runner emerging and public disillusionment mounting, the struggling Arab democracy is transitioning from a period of consensus to uncertainty.
۱۳ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Sarah Feuer
Articles & Testimony
The Development of Tunisia’s Domestic Counter-Terrorism Finance Capability
The country is fast becoming a regional leader in meeting global CT norms, developing the necessary toolkits, and integrating its efforts with those of foreign governments.
۱۰ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Katherine Bauer
Articles & Testimony
Another Conference on Libya? Enforce the Arms Embargo Instead
Without a concerted international effort to ground UAVs and halt the flow of weapons, the UN will have minimal leverage to restart the country's long-stalled political transition.
۹ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Ben Fishman

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