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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in 2022 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Return of Old Leader Presents New Opportunities in Somalia
The Biden administration should be encouraged by the incoming president’s ties to the UAE and apparent openness to bolstering the counterterrorism fight and normalizing with Israel.
May 26, 2022
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  • Ido Levy
UAE President Muhammad bin Zayed - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
De Facto Becomes De Jure as MbZ Is Named UAE President
The succession of one of the most energetic emerging Arab leaders suggests an even more active regional role.
May 16, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Israeli Prime Minister Bennett meets with the UAE's foreign minister in December 2021 - Source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Building an Arab-Israel Bloc: Can It Compensate for a Reluctant Washington?
Arab, European, and Israeli experts assess the possibilities and limits of normalization, discussing concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. retrenchment, and the Palestinian issue.
May 12, 2022
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  • Nickolay Mladenov
  • Zohar Palti
  • Ebtesam al-Ketbi
  • Karim Haggag
Qatari leader Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Qatari Visit to Iran Suggests Possible Policy Breakthroughs
The emir will likely seek a role in reviving the nuclear agreement, as well as Iranian help with accommodating World Cup fans later this year.
May 11, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Hassan Daqou
Brief Analysis
Dethroning Lebanon’s “King of Captagon”
A major international drug smuggler with close ties to Hezbollah has continued threatening Lebanese residents and helping the Assad regime next door, giving Washington ample cause to intervene.
May 9, 2022
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  • Lauren Fredericks
Articles & Testimony
We Can’t Face Down Putin Alone
Some potential allies in the Middle East may not be democracies, but they're not revisionist states either, so the United States cannot afford to write them off.
May 6, 2022
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  • Dennis Ross
Arab Approval of UAE, Bahrain Peace with Israel
Video
Brief Analysis
New Arab Polls on Ukraine, Iran, Israel, and China: Analysis and Implications
Three public opinion experts discuss what March and April surveys in key states reveal about local attitudes toward U.S. policy.
May 3, 2022
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  • David Pollock
  • Catherine Cleveland
  • Munqith Dagher
Ukrainian soldiers pose with a captured Russian military vehicle - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Russia’s Move on Ukraine Polls Poorly in Arab Gulf
Most Saudi, Emirati, and Kuwaiti citizens appear to oppose Putin’s invasion, but their dim views of Washington’s reliability may limit the region’s willingness to counter Moscow.
Apr 30, 2022
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  • David Pollock
A Ghauri nuclear-capable missile on parade in Pakistan
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Renewed Saudi-Pakistan Contacts Revive Nuclear Fears
Deadlock in the Iran nuclear talks may prompt action by Riyadh, with Pakistani support.
Apr 27, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
An Israeli security officer stands guard at the scene of a terrorist shooting in Tel Aviv, March 2022.
Articles & Testimony
A Badly Needed New Approach to Quelling the Violence
A U.S.-Israel attempt to compel Qatar, the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas to end terrorist attacks against Israelis could ultimately help reset dynamics, even if such a move generates a costly short-term backlash.
Apr 25, 2022
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  • Ehud Yaari
Tahira
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Cyber-Surge (Part 2): Attributing Attacks to Militia Platforms
Sabereen News has seemingly broadened its capabilities to include simple hacking tactics like DDoS attacks, and it might quickly proceed to more complex exploits.
Apr 25, 2022
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  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Tahira
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Cyber-Surge (Part 1): Chronology of Recent Attacks
Sabereen News appears to have added cyberattacks to its normal activities of spreading militia propaganda and disinformation, claiming operations against Israeli, Turkish, and Saudi targets.
Apr 25, 2022
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  • Crispin Smith
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Saudi-Kuwaiti Tensions with Iran over Offshore Gas Field
A relatively straightforward legal dispute could have geopolitical consequences.
Apr 18, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Pakistani men watch a televised address by Prime Minister Imran Khan on March 31, 2022 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Clock Runs Out on Imran Khan as Pakistan’s Prime Minister
Things to watch going forward include Islamabad’s relationship with traditional cash source Saudi Arabia and its geopolitical posture toward Iran and Afghanistan.
Apr 11, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Israeli Minister of Defense Benny Gantz - source: Israeli Ministry of Defense
Video
Brief Analysis
Defense Minister Benny Gantz Discusses Israel's Strategic Challenges
The country's top defense official shares his insights on recent terrorist attacks, the Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine war, expanding cooperation with regional countries, and more.
Apr 11, 2022
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  • Benny Gantz
Articles & Testimony
Why Arab Allies Don’t Trust the U.S. on Ukraine
“This will not stand,” the president said after Iraq invaded Kuwait, but no such fortitude has been evident in response to Iran’s continued aggression.
Apr 9, 2022
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  • Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
A Battle Over Oil Rages Alongside Russia’s War in Ukraine
The latest OPEC+ production decision is a clear statement that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other traditional American partners are still at loggerheads with Washington.
Mar 31, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Israeli and Arab foreign ministers, along with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, at the Negev Summit - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
A New Regional Role for Israel, as Washington Shows Signs of Stepping Back
By participating in the Negev Summit, Arab states are signaling their appreciation for Israel’s status as both a local power and a unique interlocutor with the United States.
Mar 28, 2022
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  • David Makovsky
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed in 2018 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Middle East—Read “Energy”—Complicates Ukraine Crisis
A new gas deal with Germany may help, but the Gulf states are taking a risk by intertwining urgent Western energy requests with seemingly tangential regional issues.
Mar 22, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Can Turkey and the UAE Help Break Libya’s Deadlock?
Finding a compromise timeline for elections will be delicate, but the recent thaw in relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi removes a significant external impediment to progress.
Mar 14, 2022
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  • Ben Fishman

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Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Fellow of The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran, and the Persian Gulf states. He is a co-founder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria.
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